DeTrended #14 🧩: Decoding The Headlines Through Technical Truth

Your free weekly financial markets metrics report & strategies from an Economics PhD Student. Removing market noise through data insights.

⚡USA Crypto Week! Alts Moon! BTC & SPY Rally Sustainable? Inflation Hot! USA Sold BTC?

“There is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world” — John Maynard Keynes

🤓 Market Psychology 101: Still applicable! Don’t bet against a euphoric market . Prices can defy logic for extended periods, driven by collective sentiment rather than fundamentals. Investors shorting or selling too early risk being wiped out before the market corrects, emphasising the need for patience and risk management in irrational times.

Summary

👉SPX500 pushed to new highs as bearish divergence on the daily persists!

👉Inflation comes in hot! The chance of August rate cut remains at 5% and now uncertain at 50% for September.

👉Crypto week ignites mini alt-season, while rumours echo that the USA only holds 20% of the BTC its said to hold!

👉Social mood and sentiment continue to grow bearishly despite stock market and BTC all time highs!

👉BTC & SPX500 are knocking on the door of the standard deviation + 2 extremity bands where price only spends 5% of the time increasing the probability for a pullback sooner rather later! Year end extremity and halving cycle target remains $211k. $XRP hits it’s SD+3 extremity where it only spends <1% of it’s time! Time to sell or new super trend?

📈Trending Topics Breakdown

• Crypto Summit and Legislation in the USA: The week featured the kickoff of 'Crypto Week' in the US on July 14, highlighting landmark digital asset legislation including the GENIUS Act, which establishes a regulatory framework for stablecoins and was signed by President Trump, aiming to foster innovation while providing clarity for the industry. Additionally, Coinbase hosted the State of Crypto Summit 2025, unveiling a major push into stablecoin payments with bipartisan policy support and showcasing new on-chain payment tools, drawing over 400 leaders from finance and tech amid growing institutional adoption. This event underscored the US's ambition to become a 'Bitcoin superpower,' with discussions on stablecoin bills passing to the president's desk and boosting market sentiment, though Bitcoin prices pulled back slightly after recent highs. Many alt-coins and COIN 0.00%↑ soared in response!

• US Government Bitcoin Sales and Holdings: Rumours are spreading that the US sold a majority of it’s BTC. A July 2025 FOIA request showed the US Marshals Service holds only 28,988 BTC—far less than prior estimates of ~200,000 BTC for Marshals alone—sparking sale rumors!These are just rumours and an audit is needed in my opinion! Why is there no audit? It would take no time and cost nothing to give the people some clarity!

• Major Tariff News: President Trump escalated trade tensions by announcing a 19% tariff on Indonesia effective immediately, tied to deals for Boeing jets and US energy/farm products, while signalling broader actions including letters to over 150 countries threatening a tariff barrage starting August 1. Steep increases were detailed for 14 nations like Japan and South Korea (up to 40%), with even higher rates (100% on Russia) and a steel tariff hike from 25% to 50%, sparking concerns over retaliatory measures and global supply chain disruptions. Mexico and the EU faced new threats of 30-50% duties, contributing to an estimated $3 trillion in fiscal effects over the next decade, while tracking shows 28 tariff policy flip-flops by Trump, heightening market volatility and inflation risks.

• US Inflation Data and Fed Rate Cut Delays: June's CPI rose to 2.7% year-over-year, hotter than expected and up from May's 2.4%, with core CPI at 3.0%, stoking fears of persistent inflation driven by energy prices and overriding pressure on the Fed for cuts, leading to delayed rate-cut expectations and rising Treasury yields. Chance of August cuts are only 5%. This trend dominated financial discussions, with markets brushing aside some concerns but showing subdued closes in S&P and Nasdaq amid mixed bank earnings from JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, where strong trading revenues were offset by lower guidance and credit risks. The data reinforced the Fed's hold stance, with September cuts now uncertain at 50%, while tech rallied on Nvidia's China chip approvals, pushing Nasdaq to records despite broader market caution.

• Jerome Powell Resignation: Trump has stated he's not planning to fire him, and legal experts say removal is improbable.

• The Return of $ETH: Ethereum ETF inflows have been recording breaking this week even surpassing Bitcoins on one day! Price has returned to fair value!

  

DeTrend Price - Cyclical Top / Bottom Finder Models

Note: Macro Oscillators are updated, this section will be the same until August 4th as the oscillator is tri-weekly.

BRCO

BRCO (Bitcoin cycle top / bottom leading indicator) rose to 68.93 from 64.71. Considering Bitcoin jumped to $122k this is a lower value than I was expecting suggesting price has much higher to go this halving cycle before the final move up.

The oscillator is a weighted combination of technical indicators and percentage band elasticity that has historically identified, 3-6 weeks in advance, when a final thrust up or down is going to occur allowing investors to plan there exit and entry risk management strategies. Once readings get above 80 an irrational alt season has kicked in and above 90 suggests a terminal move is round the corner! Nothing is perfect, but this is a very powerful tool when combined with other models like the Standard Deviation Bands and Sentiment Dial!

RCO

Relative Cyclical Oscillator (Stock market top / bottom cyclical leading indicator) jumped to 63.48 from 53.2. The buy zone (<40) in April gave investors an incredible entry signal in the the US stock in market!

The oscillator is a weighted combination of technical indicators and percentage band elasticity that has historically identified, 3-6 weeks in advance, when a final thrust up or down is going to occur allowing investors to plan there exit and entry risk management strategies. Once readings get above 84 a terminal move is round the corner! Though less accurate than the BRCO, this is still a very powerful tool when combined with other models like the Standard Deviation Bands and Sentiment Dial!

Weekly Trade Set Up - (From Trade Signals)

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Last weeks SUI & ONDO signals hit take profit #1 and Google is just under TP#1!

Profits paid for the Trade Signals $20 monthly subscription and then some! 2 new: $700 Tencent & $DOGE | 3 inactive: $AVAX $GOLD $BTDR | 7 active: $TSLA $OP $GOOG $FET $AAVE $ETH $JSW | Take Profit #1 Hit: $SUI $ONDO | Take Profit #2 Hit: $HBAR (Wait for next set-up)

Nearing Take Profit #1 - GOOGLE

Date Published: 11/07/25

Long Signal: $180 A break above the swing high after testing pivot and HVN as support

Type: Swing / Pivot

Take Profit 1: $189, EQ of the High Volume Node resistance

Risk Reward Ratio: 1.22

Take Profit 2: $202 R3 daily pivot and major resistance HVN

Risk Reward Ratio: 3.07

Stop Loss / Invalidation: $283 falling back below HVN support and swing lowSentiment

𝙎𝙪𝙢𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙮

😏 The arch enemy of the trader / investor has emerged from its slumber once more on eToro: Ego.

Screenshots of unrealised portfolios & positions have made their debut this week as market participants start to irrationally brag with excitement. This it not yet at concerning levels, but definitely an early warning sign of local tops, at least. Many quantitative models monitor sentiment, a high reading can often trigger institutional profit taking, kicking off the next bear phase!

Bearish sentiment is STILL growing as AAII retail sentiment survey drops once more! Put options are minimally down from last week but still elevated as wall street and institutions bet against the bull market! Macro-economic headlines continue to fuel social mood keeping true euphoria under wraps… for now! The crowd is often wrong and the crowd is shorting / hedging against stocks!

Over in the crypto space, Bitcoin consolidates in price discovery giving alt season renewed life. Participants are excited, calling for ‘alt-season’ once more, changing sentiment bullish! Their sensitivity to alt coin movement is wild! Is it really alt season? I’m not sure we saw true despair this time round and as we are having a summer rally, September has a high probability of being brutally bearish, capitulating many before the huge run! Are alt holders ready for new lows after another pump like this?

𝙇𝙤𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙢: Higher for stocks Bitcoin into the end of the year as extreme values have not been breached, subdued by macro-economic conditions.

𝙎𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙩 𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙢: Excitement has room to grow so still expecting higher in the short term but increasing excitement suggest it wont last to long!

𝘕𝘰𝘵𝘦: 𝘚𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘶𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘫𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘢𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘺𝘴𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘰𝘰𝘭𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵.

📊 𝘾𝙧𝙮𝙥𝙩𝙤 𝙁𝙚𝙖𝙧 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙂𝙧𝙚𝙚𝙙 index leaps to 70 from 58, now in 'Greed'. This index primarily tracks $BTC so isn't reflecting the full bullish sentiment flip in alt-coins. Its time to flip cautious as renewed faith in alt coins is fuelling bullish sentiment. Screenshots of portfolio values and trades have begun to emerge on eToro. It’s never a good sign when ego takes hold of the masses..

𝘏𝘰𝘸 𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘵 𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥? It is a weighted calculation of Bitcoin volatility, volume & dominance with social media hash tag farming, surveys, and google trends.

📊 𝘾𝙉𝙉'𝙨 𝙎𝙩𝙤𝙘𝙠 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙁𝙚𝙖𝙧 & 𝙂𝙧𝙚𝙚𝙙 Index drops 1 point to 74 pushing it back into: 'Greed' down from ‘Extreme Greed’. $SPX500 consolidates in price discovery. The macro trend is still up as no significant levels have been violated yet but caution is needed at these levels due to a likely rejection before continuation of the trend. At least a test of previous all time high is likely.

𝘏𝘰𝘸 𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘵 𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥? It is a weighted calculation of momentum, RSI, breadth, put call ratios, volatility, treasury comparison and junk bond demand.

📊 𝙈𝙮 𝙀𝙏𝙤𝙧𝙤 𝙁𝙧𝙪𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 & 𝙂𝙡𝙤𝙖𝙩 index continues to drops from a high of 68, down to 62 last week and 60 today, bang on neutral! SPY selling is heightened keeping prices down raising continuation doubts and concerns of a reversal. Although put call ratios edged slightly in the bulls favour, the bears are still betting against the market. Retails bearish sentiment increased, while bullish sentiment decreased according to the AAII sentiment survey. Macro-economic headline fear is clearly still in control of the majority, keeping them sidelined of worse, missing financial market opportunties and betting on ‘the big short’!

𝘏𝘰𝘸 𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘵 𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥?

👉 $VIX Volatility Index increased to 17.15 but continues its trend downward, finding support in the usual zone.

👉 $SPX500 Put Call Ratio decreases from 1.92 to 1.85. Bulls have increased but the bears still significantly betting against a continuation for stock! SPY volume has grown showing investor are taking increased action at these levels, weather thats taking profits or buying more is yet to be seen.

👉 AAII Sentiment Survey (American Association of Individual Investors) drops again showing retails bearish sentiment keeps on growing! I choose this metric as it solely retail analysis, removing noise from institutions, thus showing the headline interference on retail vs what’s actually happening in the markets.

👉 Sentiment farming from eToro comments on influencer posts. People are beginning to get excited but not significantly. I use natural language processors and assign more weight to social media comments on influencer profiles as I believe this reflects REAL 'boots on the ground' sentiment.

DeTrend Time - Renko SD

Keep track of my updated models on my FREE supplementary website - AAVE, ETH, FET, TSLA, GOOGLE, SUI, XRP and much more

Removing time for pure price behaviour analysis, Bitcoin continues its push into the Standard Deviation+2 channel for a prolonged time. Price only usually remains in this for <5% of the time unless a new super trend is building! Short term upside target is an irrational price thrust above the SD+2 channel to $128k ending the current move up. Green blocks continue to print showing the price appreciation trend in tact. Downside target remains $104k at the previous block highs resistance flipped support. Terminal target for 2026 Q1 is still $211k.

SPX500 has now test the Standard deviation +2 extremity target I’ve been publishing, which price only enters 5% of the time. Another thrust up will likely be a short terminal move for the SPX igniting profit taking, kicking off a short term pull back and mini b ear market. Q4 extreme targets are $8200 provided we have a boom at some point, more realistic targets remain $7200. The first downside target remains $6045.

Investment & Trading Strategy: BTC for growth, Miners for Alpha, cautiously preparing for alt season.

🚀 Join the conversation with me on EToro and copy my investment and trading portfolio!

I utilise a Smart Beta strategy similar to hedge funds where I concentrate investment in the asset with most growth potential for my copiers while researching, analysing and trading alpha stocks & alt-coins that have the potential to outperform.

📈 Passive Strategy: I model and analyse trends & price extremities to get the best BTC buys and sells for my copiers across market cycles

✅ BTC is establishing itself as a new global asset and has the best growth vs risk potential for years to come. Data points to an exponential growth curve for Bitcoin, driven by “scarcity engineering” from $MSTR, sparking a new wave of buyers, including 21, MetaPlanet, nations, and U.S. states, all adding Bitcoin to their treasuries.

📈 Active Alpha Strategy: I use my tried and tested financial market strategies to trade alpha stocks & alt coins while professionally managing downside risk

✅ My econometric models and technical analysis cut through market & headline noise so you don’t have to!

Alt-coins are back on the menu joining Bitcoin stocks, as we trade their renewed life flipping to a risk on environment. Bitcoin Miners also have the AI tailwind behind them giving these low liquidity ‘alts’ (alternative investment to Bitcoin) room to shine. I continue to add positions on trading signals while taking partial short term profits putting the eToro account up 16% year to date and 90% over 2 years.

Disclaimer: The material presented herein is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, trading, tax or accounting advice. Maddox Metrics is a personal website for author to share his work and ideas. The author, newsletter or website is not registered as financial advice, financial advisor, money manager or money management of any kind. All opinions, trade ideas, price targets and risk parameters reflect personal views at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice.

Trading financial assets involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for every investor. You can lose part or all of you capital and past performance is not indicative of future results. Before acting on any information, conduct your own due diligence or consult a license financial professional.

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