DeTrended #12 🧩: Decoding The Headlines Through Technical Truth
Your free weekly metrics report from an Econ PhD Student. Removing market noise through data insights.
⚡ Tariff Pause Ending, SPY Climbs Irrationally, BBB Injects liquidity, BTC Ready for higher?
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” — John Maynard Keynes
🤓 Market Psychology 101: Don’t bet against a euphoric market . Prices can defy logic for extended periods, driven by collective sentiment rather than fundamentals. Investors shorting or selling too early risk being wiped out before the market corrects, emphasising the need for patience and risk management in irrational times.
Summary
👉SPY and QQQ continue into all time with no relief pull back yet for bears or those looking to enter positions lower. Technicals are oversold from the daily down but the weekly shows room to grow! Record breaking percentage bands have returned STILL suggesting a decent pullback soon but irrationality is in control!
👉Trumps tariff pause ends this week so participants will be on edge so expect market volatility.
👉The chance of rate cuts has significantly being reduced after strong unemployment numbers, now at 4.7% but 66% for September. There is chatter of replacing Powell.
👉Social mood remains low while bullish sentiment has increased to danger levels for stocks but remains subdued for crypto, likely due to alt-coin disappointment.
👉BTC regression bands are ticking away with the year end extremity and halving cycle target of $211k. I am hearing whispers of a prolonged run and an end to to ‘cycle theory’ along side higher targets but this is the news you expect to hear to stop investors taking profits and even buy more at higher prices!
📈Trending Topics Breakdown
The Big Beautiful Bill - Trump signs the big beautiful bill into law, insulting Elon Musk & DOGE’s work.
📜 The "Big Beautiful Bill" addresses immediate fiscal needs by raising the debt ceiling and providing short-term stimulus, but its long-term implications are concerning, with significant debt increases, higher borrowing costs, and social program cuts posing risks to economic stability. Trump is playing politics and kicking the ‘collapse’ can down the road,
Satoshi Era Wallet Awakens - $8.4B of Bitcoin was transferred from a very old wallet yesterday and made twitter headlines creating fear of an escalated order book dump.
📉 More narrative fear than anything. There’s nothing to panic about, there’s no confirmation as to whether they are destined to be sold or not. And if they are to be sold it is likely to be gradually over time. The amount is less than 0.4% of the $2 trillion + market cap and we are seeing companies practising Bitcoin strategic reserves and ETFs eating more than this in just a couple of weeks. There’s always going to be profit taking from OG wallets.
Trump Tariffs 90 day pause ends this week July 9th - Only a few trade deals (U.K., China, Vietnam) are finalised, with ongoing talks involving Japan, South Korea, India, Canada, Mexico, and the EU. Trump signals no extension, threatening 10–70% tariffs from August 1, but extensions for "good faith" negotiators are possible. Slow progress, like Japan’s rice import disputes, raises fears of reinstated high tariffs, potentially inflating prices and risking recession. Markets are volatile, and businesses delay plans. X posts highlight uncertainty, with outcomes hinging on Trump’s unpredictable decisions.
DeTrend Price - Cyclical Timing Models
Note: Macro Oscillators are updated tri-weekly so this section will be the same until July 14th.
Relative Cyclical Oscillator (Stock market top / bottom cycle leading indicator) inched up to 53.2 from the buy zone (<40) in April suggesting price has much higher to go in the long term.
BCRO (Bitcoin cycle top / bottom leading indicator) inched up to 64.71, also suggesting price has much higher to go this cycle.
Sentiment
𝙎𝙪𝙢𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙮
Disbelief still persists in the stock rally despite the all time highs. Macro headlines keeps bears alive. Alt coins have started to recover but many participants in this market are significantly underwater keeping them frustrated while the rest of the market is performing well, ultimately giving sentiment a boost.
𝙇𝙤𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙢: Still higher to go to get to max greed.
𝙎𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙩 𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙢: Potential retracement in stocks but don’t irrationally short!
𝘕𝘰𝘵𝘦: 𝘚𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘶𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘫𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘢𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘺𝘴𝘪𝘴 𝘵𝘰𝘰𝘭𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵.
📊 𝘾𝙧𝙮𝙥𝙩𝙤 𝙁𝙚𝙖𝙧 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙂𝙧𝙚𝙚𝙙 index rises from 49 to 54, still at 'Neutral'. This index primarily tracks $BTC so isn't reflecting the full bearish sentiment in alt-coins accurately and sets the crypto space up for a continued run.
𝘏𝘰𝘸 𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘵 𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥? It is a weighted calculation of Bitcoin volatility, volume & dominance with social media hash tag farming, surveys, and google trends.
📊 𝘾𝙉𝙉'𝙨 𝙎𝙩𝙤𝙘𝙠 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙁𝙚𝙖𝙧 & 𝙂𝙧𝙚𝙚𝙙 Index jumps from 62 to 74: 'Greed'. $SPX500 continues into price discovery. The macro trend is still up as no significant levels have been violated yet but caution is needed at these levels due to a likely rejection before continuation of the trend.
𝘏𝘰𝘸 𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘵 𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥? It is a weighted calculation of momentum, RSI, breadth, put call ratios, volatility, treasury comparison and junk bond demand.
📊 𝙈𝙮 𝙀𝙏𝙤𝙧𝙤 𝙁𝙧𝙪𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 & 𝙂𝙡𝙤𝙖𝙩 index jumps to 68 from 56: 'Neutral optimism'. Disbelief still persists in the stock rally despite the all time highs. Macro headlines keeps bears alive. Alt coins have started to recover but many participants in this market are significantly underwater keeping them frustrated while the rest of the market is performing well, ultimately giving sentiment a boost. Plenty of room to grow!
𝘏𝘰𝘸 𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘵 𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥?
👉 $VIX Volatility Index remains at 16
👉 $SPX500 Put Call Ratio increases too 1.26 showing bears are entering the markets at these levels, betting on a retracement! Bullish sentiment has increased while volume of shares exchanged has decreased.
👉 AAII Sentiment Survey flips significantly bullish. I choose this metric as it solely retail analysis, removing noise from institutions, thus showing the headline interference on retail vs what’s actually happening in the markets.
👉 Sentiment farming from eToro comments on influence posts. I use natural language processors and assign more weight to social media comments on influencer profiles as I believe this reflects REAL 'boots on the ground' sentiment.
DeTrend Time - Renko SD
Keep track of my updated models on my FREE supplementary website - AAVE, ETH, FET, TSLA, GOOGLE, SUI, XRP and much more
Removing time for pure price behaviour analysis, Bitcoin Standard Deviation channels edged high and have short term extremity upside target of $126k. No 2nd red block printed, instead we got a green block suggesting continuation from here. Downside target inches high to $94.4k. Terminal target for 2026 Q1 is still $211k.
The SPX500 model continues bullishly after the Q1 pull back into the opportunity green zone. Standard Deviation channels have increased, with a short term upside target of $6390. Q4 extreme targets are $8200 provided we have a boom at some point, more realistic targets remain $7200. 1st downside target is now $6045.
Investment & Trading Focus: BTC for growth, Miners for Alpha, cautiously preparing for alt-coin season.
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Bitcoin miners and stocks are really moving, backing up my thesis of the new alt season presenting itself in a different form! COIN and IREN at all time highs, MSTR sits just below and the other miners are putting in impressive candles this week which I expect to continue. Miners also have the AI tailwind behind them giving these low liquidity ‘alts’ (alternative investment to Bitcoin) room to shine. I continue to add positions on trading signals while taking partial short term profits putting the eToro account up 4% year to date and 70% over 2 years.
Bitcoin backed mortgages are being introduced by Freddie Mac. This news seems overlooked but is s significant development as less people need to sell to achieve the goal of home ownership. Data points to an exponential growth curve for Bitcoin, driven by “scarcity engineering” from $MSTR, sparking a new wave of buyers, including 21, MetaPlanet, nations, and U.S. states, all adding Bitcoin to their treasuries.
Weekly Trade Set Up - (From Trade Opportunities Newsletter)
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ASSET - AAVE:USD
Long Signal: A break above the local swing high after this retest of the pivot $292.80
Type: Swing / Pivot
Take Profit 1: $432, bottom of the High Volume Node, just under all time high
Take Profit 2: $556 the R5 daily pivot
Stop Loss / Invalidation: $248, Falling back below pivot support
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