DeTrended #11 🧩: Decoding The Headlines Through Technical Truth
Your free weekly report from an Econ PhD Student. Removing market noise through data insights.
⚡ SPY / QQQ All Time High | Markets Close Near Highs | Sentiment Flips Bullish | Bears Still in Doubt!
“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!” — Jesse Livermore
🤓 Market Psychology 101: Greed drives impulsive buying, but fear triggers panic selling. Investors often chase hype in uptrends and flee at the first sign of trouble. Big players exploit this by stoking volatility, scooping up shares when the herd runs scared.
Summary
Well, well, well! Back to all time highs (ATH) on the SPX500 and QQQ to the bears disbelief. I’ve tracked the record breaking DEMA band width for the past few weeks and, after a temporary contraction to touch, price shot up once again! (Blue & yellow lines in image). When markets close near the highs on a Friday it shows consumers are confident in the markets thus willing to hold over a weekend of geopolitical events!
The headlines are STILL declaring ‘War! Recession! Collapse!’ as tariff news returns and conflicts in the middle east haven’t quite settled! Powell has firmly stated that the USA is not in a recession while rate cut probability rises to the highest this year at 22% for July.
The long term out look remains bullish but price is expected to have a short term sell off, however, the trend can stay irrational longer than participants can stay liquid so don’t bet against it! Institutional flows continue to buy the ‘Fear and FUD’ disease, spreading through retail minds.
SPY takes control of the markets while BTC consolidates below all time high. Market participants are still desperate for rate cuts, QE and conflict resolution to increase risk appetite and we could be on for an unprecedented bull run this year when it happens. Bitcoin Stocks & Miners continue to pump while alts bleed. COIN reached ATH, IREN is inches away. 2 great trades for us. Bitcoin appears to have a found a bottom and is ready for the next rally up. ETF inflows continue to be aggressive for both ETH and BTC.
Commodities have found a temporary top after strong runs and are beginning to be sold off, last weeks ‘Weekly Trade Set Up’ Silver short is active. OIL 0.00%↑ $WHEAT $SILVER
📈Trending Topics Breakdown
Canada Tariffs - Trump halts trade talks, threatens new tariffs over Canada’s digital tax, citing “blatant attack”; rate announcement due within days.
🤷More headlines to be ignored? This will likely go away within a week and a settlement agreed. Watch tariff rate details, Canada’s retaliation, cross-border trade data.
Iran-Israel Truce Violations - Sporadic clashes reported as Iran-Israel truce falters; both sides blame violations, raising fears of renewed Middle East conflict.
🛢️Oil volatility will continue and commodities may see a spike up. I also expect this to cease within a week and the narrative will switch elsewhere.
Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Companies - The new crypto craze is seeing global stocks make unrealistic gains and I expect this irrational behaviour to continue until the cycle peak before unwinding in a pretty bad way for most! Ride the trend, get out during excitement and ‘new paradigm shift’ headlines!
DeTrend Price - Cyclical Timing Models
Note: Macro Oscillators are updated tri-weekly so this section will be the same until then.
Relative Cyclical Oscillator (Stock market top / bottom cycle leading indicator) inched up to 53.2 from the buy zone (<40) in April suggesting price has much higher to go in the long term.
BCRO (Bitcoin cycle top / bottom leading indicator) inched up to 64.71, also suggesting price has much higher to go this cycle.
DeTrend Time - Renko SD
See the full asset list of updated models - AAVE, ETH, FET, TSLA, GOOGLE, SUI, XRP and much more
Removing time for pure price behaviour, Bitcoin Standard Deviation channels have short term extremity upside target of $126k but price must print another green block for confidence in this direction. Until then, a continued retracement has a target of $92k. Terminal target for 2026 Q1 is still $211k.
The SPX500 model continues to play out as expected after the Q1 pull back into the opportunity green zone. Standard Deviation channels have short term extremity upside target of $6330. Q4 extreme targets are $8200 provided we have a boom at some point, more realistic targets remain $7200.
Sentiment
L𝙤𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙢 suggestion: Higher
𝙎𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙩 𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙢 suggestion: Potential retracement in stocks but don’t irrationaly short!
📊 𝘾𝙧𝙮𝙥𝙩𝙤 𝙁𝙚𝙖𝙧 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙂𝙧𝙚𝙚𝙙 index rises from 43 to 49, still at 'Neutral'. This index primarily tracks $BTC so isn't reflecting the full bearish sentiment in alt-coins accurately and sets the crypto space up for a continued run.
𝘏𝘰𝘸 𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘵 𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥? It is a weighted calculation of Bitcoin volatility, volume & dominance with social media hash tag farming, surveys, and google trends.
📊 𝘾𝙉𝙉'𝙨 𝙎𝙩𝙤𝙘𝙠 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩 𝙁𝙚𝙖𝙧 & 𝙂𝙧𝙚𝙚𝙙 Index jumps from 55 to 62: 'Greed'. $SPX500 makes all time high. The macro trend is still up as no significant levels have been violated yet but caution is needed as we hit all time high, due to a likely rejection before continuation of the trend.
𝘏𝘰𝘸 𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘵 𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥? It is a weighted calculation of momentum, RSI, breadth, put call ratios, volatility, treasury comparison and junk bond demand.
📊 𝙈𝙮 𝙀𝙏𝙤𝙧𝙤 𝙁𝙧𝙪𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 & 𝙂𝙡𝙤𝙖𝙩 index ticks up 56 from 38.9: 'Neutral doubt'. There is a lot of annoyance about the stock rally happening despite the terrible macro environment and bears are still doubting the rally. The lack of alt coin movement keeps these metrics subdued, but the rest of the market are performing well, ultimately giving it a boost. Plenty of room to grow!
𝘏𝘰𝘸 𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘵 𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘤𝘶𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘥?
👉 $VIX Volatility Index decreases to 16
👉 $SPX500 Put Call Ratio increases too 1.09 showing bullish sentiment & Volume of shares exchanged has slightly increased
👉 AAII Sentiment Survey remains majority bearish. I choose this metric as it solely retail analysis, removing noise from institutions, thus showing the headline interference on retail vs what’s actually happening in the markets.
👉 Sentiment farming from eToro comments on influence posts. I use natural language processors and assign more weight to social media comments on influencer profiles as I believe this reflects REAL 'boots on the ground' sentiment.
Investment Focus: BTC for growth, Miners for Alpha
Bitcoin miners are kicking off as they also pivot to AI handling as well giving them additional tailwinds. I continue to trade these on long signals.
🚀 Sign up to the ‘Trade Opportunties’ to get my shared trade set ups with clear levels of invalidation and take profit. Trades have a great >20% swing chance to play out. 1 win will easily cover the costs of the subscription!
Data points to an exponential growth curve for Bitcoin, driven by “scarcity engineering” from $MSTR, sparking a new wave of buyers, including 21, MetaPlanet, nations, and U.S. states, all adding Bitcoin to their treasuries. With the abolishment of SAB-121, banks will follow.
Supply will likely be exhausted sooner rather than later.
Trading Focus: Alt-coins, MAG7, BTC Miners, Commodities
Strong retracements will provide new signals for swing traders and offer investors another entry point. Risk management and patience are your secret weapons for navigating these market conditions, as always. Prices appear poised to correct further from overstretched technical indicators but as they say ‘prices can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid’.
Macro trends have turned bullish on the MAG 7. Alt-coins & miners have hit their “Golden Pocket” (78.6% Fibonacci retracement), a high-probability bottom. Notable Alt-Coins outperforming from local bottom are $AAVE, $BNB, $SUI.
Our eToro copy portfolio has opened and took profit on many trades so far in the last month and will continue to grow our positions as opportunities present themselves. Holding periods may exceed a year, with profit-taking along the way.
Weekly Trade Set Up - (From Trade Opportunities Newsletter)
A fairly new Bitcoin miner Bitdeer BTDR 0.00%↑ is presenting itself as an opportunity through recent volatility. Price appears to have entered a new macro Elliot Motif Wave with an ATH of $26 and a wave 3 now underway from the recent swing low which ended at the 61.8% Golden Pocket.
Long Signal: A close above the daily 200EMA, daily pivot and major resistance at $14.7.
Take Profit 1: $25
Take Profit 2: $51
Invalidation: The current swing low that is printing would be my stop loss of choice so keep an eye on that level once the signal is active.
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